Venezuela Political Transition Question of When, Not If: Eurasia

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Venezuela Political Transition Question of When, Not If: Eurasia

Tuesday, May 23, 2017 08:37 PM
By Jose Orozco

(Bloomberg) --
“President Nicolas Maduro’s refusal to back down from his constituent assembly proposal will provide the opposition with sustained momentum to mobilize protests as the process advances in the coming weeks and months,” Eurasia Group analysts Risa Grais-Targow and Agata Ciesielska write in emailed note.

“Regardless of the catalyst, a political transition is no longer a question of if, but when”
Alternate scenario is govt staying on “in an overtly authoritarian and highly repressive capacity”
“Persistent and increasingly violent unrest will eventually prompt key stakeholders to abandon Maduro and negotiate a rapid transition that sets a timetable for new elections; the precise timing is impossible to predict, however”
Eurasia sees “unified opposition, acute popular frustration, divided chavismo, and a deepening economic crisis” making Maduro’s leaving office before his term ends at 70% probability
Pro-govt over-representation in Constituent Assembly will deepen crisis by offering rallying cry for opposition
United opposition benefiting from voter frustration at all-time high, unique popular anger, seems emboldened by clear and public divisions in chavismo
“Key stakeholders are maintaining a mostly united front for now, given the fact that exit costs remain very high”
“Social dynamics are becoming more tenuous, suggesting that we are nearing a breaking point”
Army and officer corps strongly prefer to avoid open conflict with civilians
“Should the level and scope of unrest and violence dramatically escalate, it would therefore prompt an imminent transition”
Another scenario is the current conflict lasting multiple months, with divisions in chavismo widening in medium-term, leading to “major defections that prompt a negotiated transition”
Large parts of military will have to join in for transition to succeed
If govt can control protests, Maduro will probably survive until the end of his term, but it will be difficult for him to manipulate rules of the game to stay in power past 2018
Key stakeholders would likely get some guarantees for senior chavista and military officials in exchange for fresh elections and a “rebalancing and restoration of powers at key institutions”
Opposition in good position to win new elections
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jose Orozco in Mexico City at jorozco8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Giulia Camillo at gcamillo@bloomberg.net
Jonathan Roeder